My Masterful Movie Mind Maneuvers

January 24, 2012

One thing I always do and never really try to find out how right I am is predict award winners for movies.

No joke. I really do this all the time. I think I do it because I’m a nerd. I’m even having strong memories of me sitting on the couch with my mom and dad watching these awards shows.

Don’t know why…but we did…

Since that point, I’ve always had a slight interest in who wins these awards. (Actually, I think I remember watching the Academy Awards when Forrest Gump won so many awards that night, and I really liked that movie as a kid.) This whole memory always makes me take a vested interest in what and who wins these things.

I have since developed a nasty habit of seeing a preview for a movie and I instantly decide how many nominations it will receive and what awards it will probably get. So why don’t I just throw my hat in the ring on this prediction game, eh?

There is just one problem. I’ve never kept a record to find out if I have ever been very accurate in my guesses. I’ve been wondering if I’m any good at this.

So let’s find out.

I’m going to post my predictions and see how well it turns out for me.

Oh, and there’s one tiny catch. I haven’t seen any of these movies. I’ve only seen their trailers and the “buzz” surrounding their performances. I’m still feeling rather confident about my picks despite this fact. I think I’ve got my fingers on the pulse of what Hollywood really likes.

So, allow me to pick some of the more popular categories and see how well I do.

Now, in order to provide evidence of my claims of being accurate in these guesses, I will make another prediction. This is a prediction about my predictions. I predict I will have a 60% success rate or better in picking winners. I’m thinking that’s very confident.

So on to the picks:

Best Picture: I’m going to say this is the most difficult to pick considering there are 10 nominees. I suppose all of them are worthy of the title considering nearly every film has some big name associated with it. I have heard a lot of buzz around The Artist, but I think it hasn’t been seen by enough people. I think Midnight in Paris, The Help, and the Descendents all have a fair shot, but I think this one has already been determined.

The winner? Hugo

Best Actor: Once again, we’ve got a really loaded group here. My personal favorite in the competition is Gary Oldman. It’s a real shame that he’s been in so many great movies, playing so many great roles, and this is his first nomination. But I also think the Academy is thinking he will be around for a long time to come and he will truly have unlimited possibilities to get many more awards in the future. (And I think they should, he should be showered with statues). But this won’t happen.

I think the winner will be George Clooney. He’s cool. He’s dang good actor. He’s ….really cool. That’s about it. He’s just really cool and the Academy will award you for that. Plus, it will make him just that much cooler. It’s like a vicious cycle of cool.

Not to mention, it would be really cool to hear stories between him and Brad Pitt acting like there is a real competition between them for this award. But there really isn’t. They’re really good buddies in real life.

I even have a conspiracy theory for you. I think all the Ocean’s movies were not fictitious at all. They were documentaries that were nicely filmed during the off time that those guys aren’t working on a real film.

Prove me wrong. I dare you. Prove me wrong.

Best Actress: This one is tricky. It can go 1 of 3 ways. Glenn Close, Meryl Streep, or Viola Davis. My pick is Viola Davis because Streep is always nominated and Glenn Close’s movie didn’t have enough people watch it.

Not to mention, she’s paid her dues for many years. She had a long run on a T.V. show and has really done a great job in plenty of other roles. She’s diverse. She’s different. And she’s very good. I think the Academy will want to reward that behavior by giving her an award to keep her around for a long time.

Best Supporting Actor: This one is easy. Christopher Plummer. He’s old. He’s getting a career award that night. Plus, he’s freakin’ Dumbledore. Give Dumbledore the honor he deserves!

Best Supporting Actress: I think this will swing toward Bérénice Bejo. Why pick this? One reason. Sexy names win awards. That’s just all there is to it.

Plus she’s French, and somebody outside of the U.S. always wins something. It’s going to be her.

Best Director: Martin Scorsese. Because the Academy can’t resist giving it to him…again.

Best Writing for Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball. I think the book was popular. The movie was even more popular. This one is a real homerun. (Oh my, look at me. I’m making puns like Gene Shalit)

Best Writing for Original Screenplay: I’m going out on a limb on this one. I’m picking Bridesmaids. Mostly because I have a crush on Kristen Wiig, but also because I’ve heard the movie set a new standard for funny. It will be given the credit it deserves.

Best Cinematography: Hugo. Looks too darn good to not win.

Best Score (music): No doubt it’s John Williams. Just the problem is … which movie? I say War Horse. It was a much more fancy movie.

Best Animated Film: Rango. No question about this one.

Best Foreign Film: In Darkness. Title is super depressing, and I expect this to make up for the comedy of Bridesmaids winning an award.

Best Editing: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. It’s not going to win much, but it will have to win something. Plus, the trailer alone had some awesome editing. (I know this probably wasn’t the same person editing, but still. It looked very well done considering it was set to a modernized version of the Immigrant Song.)

Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Apparently Andy Serkis played an ape and he was so incredibly good that he should have been nominated for a best acting award. The problem is, the graphics were so good that many people probably thought it was a real ape rather that a man pretending to be an ape in front of a green screen that has been replaced by a digital ape.

And there they are. So by my count I have made 14 picks. And based on my prediction of a prediction, I will need to pick 9 out of the 14 to meet my mark.

If I don’t meet my mark i’ll do one of three things:

1. Never try to do anything this stupid ever again.

2. Delete the post after the winners are announced and claim I won and nobody will be able to verify if that claim is true or not.

3. Nothing. Nothing at all.

Alright, got that out of the way,

D.A.

 

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3 Responses to “My Masterful Movie Mind Maneuvers”


  1. I can’t wait to watch the Oscars now! I enjoyed seeing the way your mind works (“It was a much more fancy movie.”) And who can argue with reasoning like this: “Best Foreign Film: In Darkness. Title is super depressing, and I expect this to make up for the comedy of Bridesmaids winning an award.” I love it.

  2. goldfish Says:

    I predict that the predictions of your predictions are predicted to be predictably predictable. In other words, yes.

    I hate the Oscars and all awards shows (I live in LA and they always snarl up traffic).

  3. Alba Says:

    Super important fact: If you ever do watch Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, you have know that all the important books in the movie (her notebook, family albums) and all of the passports are made by a guy whom I’ve had as a guest teacher. We did gilt edges on books. Gold leaf is a ridiculous material.


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